Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012
Well I certainly think so. Not only because I help clients buy and sell Naples, Florida real estate but because the numbers seem to support a rebound. Inventory is down (think supply and demand) providing better support for prices, 2011 prices were up 15%+ and this year looks like some modest price gains and volume. So far so good.
In addition to the favorable trends these past few months we have what I call the long cycle theorists jumping on the band wagon. These cycle theorist guys predict everything from trends in the stock markets to the future of nations. Cycles, you know, long cycles which ebb and flow and provide tail and head winds to short term results.
Take this recent report from Florida Realtor titled “Hardest hit now rebounding?” In the article they note “resurging U.S. Sunbelt economies may surpass national growth rates (and) recent economic and real estate factors indicate that most of the Sunbelt geographies have already hit their cyclical lows and during the next six to 12 months are likely to surpass national growth rates, according to a special office report issued by Jones Lang LaSalle, a global financial and professional services firm specializing in real estate.” Here again is the view that cycles suggest what went down may now be going back up.
Intuitively I guess these cycle-based predictions feel right but who really knows? Why do I like the notion of cycles? Markets over react. Markets are never perfect each and every day. There is a herd instinct among people where we tend to chase after each other past equilibrium points. There is the pendulum effect where we persuade ourselves to argue one way and then the other. It sure feels like there is plenty of evidence for the cyclic nature of things.
If these reports are right a strong tail wind is starting to blow in the sunbelt and hopefully Naples real estate improves right along with it. To help you along, get with a good Realtors to help you navigate these trends. As for the future? We will see. Look for our upcoming quarter end report and newsletter detailing the first three months of 2012 – and tell us what you think.
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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA,
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921
Email: mark.c.goebel@gmail.com
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