Posted on Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Last week a client of ours asked me if his money was safe in Florida real estate. Now there is a question and I told him, no one can predict real estate prices. There was a time, maybe 20024 or 2004 or so we all thought we could. Real estate prices are not something easily predicted – but there are positive and negative factors.
One positive factor in the news this week – demand. We reported earlier about low supplies in Naples real estate now we need continue demand to go along with it. We know about the baby boomer thing and the prediction Texas and Florida would receive the lion’s share of the retiring population. Now it seems the numbers are starting to support a population increase in Florida.
Last week Florida Realtor reported “Southeast Florida has seen a new mini-boom in population growth following a decade of contraction, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday. Between 2010 and 2011, 92,045 residents moved to the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach area, a 1.7 percent increase – the sixth largest increase in the country, according to data compiled by the Census Bureau in its first major revision to the 2010 Census. Tampa/St. Petersburg saw the second largest influx of new residents in Florida over the period, with 36,573 pouring into the metropolitan area over the year.” Some of this is natural immigration, some of this is retirement – but for whatever reason the state is growing again.
Naples, Florida is also growing in population according to the Naples News. This is sort of population increase is going to increase demand across a very tight and historically low supplied market.
On the supply side we expect banks to start moving out that “shadow inventory” so look for continued deals on foreclosed properties if this plays out. We also expect new development in Naples like the Sable Bay Community rumored to break ground in 2013. If you like brand new construction look to the developers.
How dos all of this shake out on the supply-demand measure? We took a look this morning and we are now down to 8.86 months of supply – still shrinking form last month end. There were 6,016 properties for sale in the Sunshine MLS and 8,150 have sold in the last year. Decreasing supply, increasing population – sure feels like a continuing real estate recovery to me but keep an eye out for that shadow inventory and new development.
Have a great day and tell us what you think.
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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Some of the data relating to real estate for sale on the NaplesBestAddresses.com website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921
Email: mark.c.goebel@gmail.com
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