Posted on Wednesday, May 27, 2015
(The International Award Winning Naples Best Addresses Team at Coldwell Banker)
The Naples News reported last week the real estate market reached six-year records. No wonder, purchase volumes are strong, inventories are shrinking and the principle of supply and demand continues to drive up prices.
Let’s take a look at the Naples real estate market in some detail. In case you missed it last month here is some interesting news – Naples is among the top twenty fastest growing areas in the United States. Please see the full article at
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/florida-nations-fastest-growing-metro-areas-29917406.
Over the last twelve months the average Naples area property selling price increased 18%+. More growth against this tight supply real estate market should continue to push prices up. Purchase volumes accelerated 13%+ this month alone and supplies shrunk further to 4.04 months. Scarcity and volume growth are very supportive of further price increases.
(the northern winter was tough but life in the Naples sunshine was fantastic – a big factor in real estate here)
Readers of the blog will know we take a month end look at Naples real estate market trends – a very detailed look for all you analytics. For all you detailed oriented folks read on.
Are we in for a continued boom? We think so. Firstly, prices are highly likely to continue to rise in the next few months. We could always have a geopolitical event knock the market back but today in Naples the combination of short supply and strong purchase volumes say prices will continue to rise for a while.
The inventory of existing homes is at 4.04 months. This is stronger than the 4.79 months figure last month and far below the 12 month price equilibrium point. At 4.04 months we expect prices to rise.
(well priced condos like this one moved off the market quickly this season)
Will the buyers put up with these newer and higher prices? Yes for now. In fact buyers seem to be losing their nerve a bit as “Original Prices to Sold Prices” tightened to 3.5% from 4.0% last month. Translation? Sellers are doing a better job negotiating and pushing their asking prices.
As we enter June we typically see some slow down as the market takes a breather from high season. This is a great time to sell as serious buyers remain in the market and many parents look for new homes before the start of the school year. Buyers love the fact homes are more accessible with the decrease in floor traffic. Get out there and take a look – so far the sellers are still winning in this market with tight close to ask ratios and low inventories.
Property “selling speed” at 40 days is even with last month so properties are still moving off of the shelf.
(even the farmer’s markets are drawing good business and received a favorable nod from the commissioners yesterday)
Another market sign to watch – condo prices. Remember during the last bust condo prices dropped almost a full year BEFORE the single family home decline. We like to look at condo prices as a good leading indicator. This past month we saw condo prices RISE to $275,000 from $250,000 and inventories fall to 3.18 months from 3.94 months. Translation? Prices in the condo market are increasing AND we expect strong support for further price increases. No reversal yet.
The market is moving along nicely but are we in a bubble? This is a question we get a lot – in fact I heard it again on a plane trip just last month. We do not think we are in a bubble. With short supplies, good “original price to sold price” ratios, days on market at OK levels and condo prices rising it is clear the market is again strengthening and prices should continue to rise for a while. Will the party end one day? Of course. Perhaps suddenly. This is a boom and bust town. But “not yet.” Watch the numbers with us as cracks will appear unevenly in the figures as the next bust approaches. At these low supply levels and volume increases the market looks great for now.
(The condo market is booming – this one went under contract last week. A private beach, golf course and life on Naples Bay)
Ok the big market is good but what about the numbers neighborhood by neighborhood ? All real estate is local – as readers of our blog know very well – and all we talked about so far were averages in the big market. We need to dive deeper into each neighborhood to understand this beautiful paradise we call Naples. Let’s go … Oh boy, more data!
Our first neighborhood stop is Olde Naples. Just when we thought things might be slowing here volumes popped nearly 9% in Olde Naples this month. Inventories dove to 6.35 months from 7+ months last month and it looks like more price appreciation is on the way. Wow.
Pelican Bay supplies are quite frankly the lowest we have seen in a long, long time. Unbelievably they have dropped below 2 months supply after falling to 2.45 months last month and 3+ months last month. Are you kidding? Prices are going to continue to jump significantly here. Purchase volumes increased another 20% building on the 35%+ pop last month. You would think with the recent price run up buyers would start to shy away – instead they keep buying.
(on water views are fetching bigger prices – like this beautiful on-water old Key West style home on Naples Bay)
Windstar on Naples Bay continued its strong showing as inventories dropped under three months!The trend is very interesting here. Windstar inventories over the past few months have moved from 10+ months to 9+ months to 5+ months to 4 months to 2.67 months. Anyone can see a trend like that.
(Life at Windstar on Naples Bay can be pretty amazing)
The Crayton Road area saw a 21%+ increase in volume over last month’s 14%+ pop in volume. Look for more price appreciation here as supply levels dropped to 3+months – a level very supportive of future price increases. Do give you any idea of the change here only 209 properties are available in this area – down from 368 properties only a year ago.
The Royal Harbor area was the “come back area of the month” last month and momentum continues here this month. Volumes are up a whopping 46%+ and inventories dropped further to 3+ months. Remember this inventory level is down from 20+ months just five months ago so clearly the buyers have discovered Royal Harbor in recent months and are buying it up. Look for more price appreciation again in Royal Harbor.
(custom on-water homes with master suites looking out on the water are in big demand – like 1520 Curlew in the Royal Harbor)
Port Royal and Aqualane Shores inventories improved to 9+ months on a whopping 37% increase in purchase volumes. When people ask are people really buying properties at these prices? The answer is yes people are paying theses prices. If you want top-of-the-line luxury living in Naples, Port Royal and Aqualane Shores are among the best. Now under 12 months supply we should expect prices to continue to move up here.
Marco Island saw solid gains this month with an 14% increase in volume and inventories fell to 7+ months. We should start to see price increases on Marco. For our readers unfamiliar with the Marco Island area why not take a drive down there and take a look. When you cross over the Big Marco River on the Jolly Bridge (named for a judge – not a feeling – but I like the irony) and descend to the island you will love the local feel. Houses and condos may be less pricey and boating, golf and tennis and that incredible beach offer a great lifestyle.
(take the short car ride down to Marco and see some additional property options)
What we find interesting on Marco is the luxury single family home market – defined as properties above $2,000,000. Many of these properties offer incredible bay views and buyers may be on firmer footing here than in Naples. At 23+ months supply there is a lot on the market and a softening in the market over last month. Sooner or later the buyers are going to discover Marco Luxury.
In addition to our monthly neighborhood analysis we would like to provide a few more points of view to help our sellers and buyers.
(the new construction boys are busy but existing home sales continue to strengthen)
The big market dynamic of new construction continues. After the bust and the demise of many a builder it took a while for the new home builders to bounce back. By bounce back I mean once they were ready to return they still needed to draw up new floor plans to match new market preferences, obtain permits, clear land and build infrastructure, hire the sales teams and build homes. Well they did all that and boy are homes selling. So much so they are finally putting a real dent in the existing home market. It is estimated (and it is only an estimate as these figures are very hard to track) about 50% of all new home sales right now are new construction.
Now here is the interesting part. Even with 50% of the buyers going to new construction, inventories of existing homes are still falling and very supportive of further price increases. What a market!
A few things sellers need to know. Aggressively priced properties in poor condition are not selling very well. You are competing with beautiful new construction and your neighbor’s well priced homes. Don’t get to greedy if you need to sell your home or you may be on the market for a while even in these “boom” times. Price it well and keep it in good condition and get on the 40 day “days-on-market+ trend.
(buyers better be ready to buy when well priced properties come on the market)
The buyers in this market better be ready when they find that “Best Naples Address” for them. Why? Because buyers are competing in a short supply world with other buyers. Cash is king and a pre-approved financing letter is helpful but whatever you do – get with a real estate team like ours who knows this market, get a great online search tool like the one we can provide for no charge, and be ready to make a same day offer when you find your place.
So … the hot market continues and prices should continue to rise but each sub-market (neighborhood and condo building) are starting to differ more widely. You gotta love boom times! A welcome change from the recent past!
Why not pick up the phone and catch up with us and let us know how you are doing? Just give us a call at 239.595.3920 (Nan) or 239.595.3921 (Mark) or 239.285.2038 (David).
Please also consider reading our book “Understanding Naples Real Estate” to get you started on a real estate search https://www.naplesbestaddresses.com/offer/ or just give us a call about things to do here.
All the best,
Nan, Mark and David Goebel, PA’s
Co-Founders Naples Best Addresses
Coldwell Banker
Mark Goebel, PA and Nan Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921 239.595.3920
NaplesBestAddresses.com
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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
We are pleased to announce a portion of our real estate earnings go to support the The Naples Botanical Garden, Habitat for Humanity Collier Count and The Naples Winter Wine Festival.
Some of the data related to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the NaplesBestAddresses.com website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan and son David. Talk to Mark, Nan and Dave about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Contact us to learn more about Naples real estate trends, the florida rental market, Naples design ideas like coastal contemporary and transitional designs or just get a feel for the place like Naples Florida population trends.
